Mohanad Al-Azzawi *
The Middle East is undergoing geostrategic transformations that cast a shadow on the fate and future of the Arab countries in light of the international transformations and the change of the international system. For a quarter century, Iran invested in the development of systemic power, and diverted the resources of revolutionary elite power into institutions and entities outside the borders after the first Gulf War of 1980-1988, and that force was able to build the elements of (proxy ability) in the multinational influence areas, and it managed to consolidate the model "Lebanonization" in four Arab countries, with the support of the United Nations and the League of Arab States.
Iran has invested all the Arab resources intelligently, in line with the project of exporting the revolution and its aspirations on the vital field, to make it a force against individual political and military decision, and the Arab countries adjacent to them ignore the values of conflict and the value of power, and the resources it wasted from its sleep after the chaos In the winter, most of the world was homeless and refugees.
Terrorism, organized crime and the black economy
The Levant has entered the cycle of disintegration and displacement wars since the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the collapse of the Arab regional balance, where Iraq was the strategic safety valve for the world and embodies international peace and security, on the other hand, the regional security valve, where it was the first number in the equation of the four-way balance between countries After sixteen years of bloody and bloody labor in Iraq, Iraq was unable to return to its former role, and the region was not able to achieve the stability that it was. Rather, the phenomena of failed states, proxy armed entities, and the growing role of gangs Through the interface of corrupt politicians, corporations, contracts and organized corruption, the use of mass displacement tactics and demographic change, the erosion of services and citizenship rights in those countries, as well as the strengthening of the cauldron of terrorism by the migration of armed counter-mercenaries from East Asia to Iraq and Syria, becoming the Mediterranean basin and the energy basin. The world is under the rule of armed terrorist organizations with a real decline in the role of the armed forces in countries of turmoil and complex wars.
Combustion with warm war fire
I have already written about the warm war and what it called the (complex war) *1 in 2012. We have spoken clearly about the characteristics of these wars, their tools, the sequence of their tactics and their devastating impact. And interpretation, influence and promotion, especially as the media market to the second party and obscure the first party and gives those war's legitimacy, and demon devastated as we have seen for a quarter of a century, but cannot be disagreeable on the facts, events, victims, damage, cost and impact that mislead the results Media router.
If we look deeply at the context of the warm war that we have said about it, it is between the Cold War, which does not use armed force and relies on soft and ghostly force (special intelligence operations) and the "systematic hot war," which, according to international law, proclaims the objective, upholds rules of engagement and abides by official treaties. The (warm war)* 2,3,4 is diligent in the name of the fact that the flames in its asymmetric complex wars are rife with fire, barbarity and brutality. At the same time, these wars are fought without official declaration by using proxy forces and remote parallel entities (Proxy power), which removes the responsibility to abide by the laws of war and legal responsibility, as it seems that those wars were prepared not only to destroy countries and peoples within the scheme of human annihilation instead, they have changed war patterns and lost their value, given the enormous cost of conventional weapons and the low cost of proxy weapons.
These war transformations have cast a shadow over the values of war, the system of battle, the role of the armed forces, and the influence of states after the mafias and companies dominated the theater of the black economy that feeds those wars and their multiple terrorist organizations.
The north of the Levant is engaged in multiple wars of genocide, the free use of all weapons, brutal methods and unparalleled warfare tactics. The south was waiting for neutrality, waiting for the results. US President Donald Trump's maneuver is controversial in repositioning US strategic sectors in the Gulf and synchronizing them with sanctions against Iran, where the anticipated south of the Arab Mashreq has been subjected to a package of complex operations using proxy power located north As the Iranian decision-maker has studied the international and regional environment, and invested its shifting climate and the weakness of Arab capacity, and decided to use the (proxy ability) to hit the backbone of the Gulf Arab economy. The most recent was to hit (Saudi Aramco) oil sites in a relatively successful military operation.
In spite of recent events, it is a military act of aggression under international law that proves Iran's involvement in it, but it raises critical questions with difficult answers (how efficient are the billions of weapons versus cheap dollar weapons?), and the rules of deterrence remain effective at all times. Most notably, power is the essence of conflict, and war is shifting from one pattern to another according to political and economic transformation. It has become necessary to restore military calculations, the system of battle and the contexts of war in order to achieve balanced deterrence in a changing world without rules and law.
* Military expert