Commentary by Dr. Saeed Mohammad Abu Rahma

Expert in Conflict and Coexistence Affairs

The latest signals emerging from the Cairo talks point to a complex negotiation track shaped by a clear gap between the Palestinian side’s comprehensive vision—centered on completing Phase One and moving in an orderly manner to Phase Two—and an Israeli approach that remains cautious, and at times appears dilatory, particularly regarding the provision of clear, written commitments. Palestinian approval of the 15-point proposal as a negotiating framework does not constitute acceptance of it as a final settlement; rather, it reflects a willingness to launch a serious process built on completing previously agreed terms. This, in turn, underscores an awareness among Palestinian factions that any partial or fragmented transition between phases risks reproducing the crisis rather than resolving it.

Within this context, the factions’ insistence on fully implementing Phase One emerges as a fundamental condition—not merely as a contractual obligation, but as a political and security guarantee against hollowing out the agreement. The immediate deployment of a national committee to administer the Gaza Strip represents, in essence, an effort to reorganize the internal landscape and institutionalize a form of civilian governance that could serve as a gateway to a broader settlement. Likewise, linking the issue of arms to a comprehensive political process—rather than confining it to a narrow factional framework—signals an attempt to shift it from being treated solely as an Israeli security demand to becoming part of an integrated political resolution tied to the future of the Palestinian political system as a whole.

Conversely, Israel’s initial stance—marked by a refusal to offer explicit guarantees for completing Phase One—reveals a strategy aimed at preserving a wide margin of maneuver without entering into binding commitments that could constrain its options later. This refusal, particularly regarding halting violations, withdrawing from the so-called “Yellow Line,” and improving humanitarian conditions, suggests that Israel continues to view these issues as negotiable leverage rather than obligations to be fulfilled. The discrepancy between mediators’ claims of Israeli consent and the absence of concrete guarantees further highlights a recurring challenge in such negotiations, where flexible language is often employed to prevent a complete breakdown of talks without producing substantive progress.

As for the mediators, including Nikolay Mladenov, their role appears largely confined to bridging gaps and facilitating dialogue. However, their capacity to enforce meaningful commitments remains limited in the absence of decisive international pressure. Even the initiative to secure a 48-hour halt in airstrikes failed to elicit an official response, underscoring the constraints of mediation efforts amid prevailing field dynamics.

On the ground, the relative decline in the intensity of airstrikes, coupled with a modest increase in the number of aid trucks entering the Gaza Strip, can be interpreted as signs of tactical de-escalation rather than a strategic shift. These developments may be intended to provide breathing room for negotiations or may reflect temporary military and humanitarian calculations. Yet they fall short of indicating a clear political commitment. Despite some improvement, aid levels remain well below the minimum required, leaving the humanitarian crisis as a persistent source of pressure.

In sum, the Cairo track stands at a critical juncture. The proposal at hand will either evolve into a binding framework that ensures continuity and coherence between phases, or remain a provisional document used to manage—rather than resolve—the crisis. The decisive factor lies not only in the wording of the provisions, but in the political will of all parties, particularly the United States, to move from managing the conflict toward genuinely resolving it. Until then, field realities and humanitarian indicators will remain the most reliable barometers of the seriousness of this process.

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