By: Naji Ali Amhaz

It is evident that the region is undergoing a massive geopolitical upheaval; scales are shifting, and old equations are no longer valid. We are witnessing the birth of a new world order whose features are clearly emerging—a sphere of influence extending from Israel to a Turkish Sultanate that is making a powerful return to the regional stage.

This transformation did not emerge from a vacuum. It is the result of a sequence of events that proved a shocking reality to international decision-makers: the "absence of Arab and Islamic effectiveness." While the world expected resilience or resistance, it discovered that the collective Arab mind is in a state of retreat. This has encouraged major powers to push forward with their projects without waiting for decades, as long as the minimum requirements for confrontation are missing.

I foresaw this Turkish role and its return to Tripoli, Lebanon, in an article published on December 18, 2021, titled: "What Happened in Lebanon and the French-American, Russian-Turkish Plan, and the Role of the Party." Today, the details I mentioned then are manifesting on the ground.

The Psychological Shift and the Collapse of the "Arab Bloc"

The fundamental variable lies in the discovery by global powers that a unified "Arab Bloc" no longer exists. The fall of a capital or the destruction of sanctities no longer triggers a "sacred march" of the masses. Instead, nations have become scattered voices, internally divided into tribes and sects clashing over deep identity crises.

The Arab mind has lost its survival instincts due to the dominance of hyper-individualism and the search for momentary personal survival. To simplify this crisis psychologically: one only needs to look at the state of despair that makes an individual prioritize a fleeting gain over long-term existence. While this judgment does not apply to every individual, in sociology, it is the "overwhelming majority" that determines the path of nations and forms the basis for strategic conclusions.

The Language of Numbers: Erasing Nations from the Map

Turkey views the current Arab scene with high pragmatism. It sees Israel acting as it pleases without any real political or popular opposition. Regarding stability, the Arab world has lost at least 3 million people in wars over the last twenty years—either by direct Israeli hands or through Takfiri groups that never once targeted Israel. It is as if these groups indirectly intersect with Israel, sharing a single agenda.

If we limit the statistics to Iraq, Syria, Palestine, and Lebanon over just 23 years, we find terrifying official figures: approximately 2,031,700 killed, over 19 million injured, and tens of thousands missing, along with more than 15 million displaced persons. These numbers simply mean that an "entire Arab state" has been erased from the map by fire and gunpowder.

Turkish Ambition and the Conflict with France

Faced with this reality, Turkey has decided to seize its share. It will not accept Israel monopolizing gains and reaching the outskirts of Damascus while Ankara stands by as a spectator—especially since its own national security was shaken by border crises and demographic tensions (such as the Alawite file) that nearly destabilized its internal security.

Furthermore, there is the Turkish-French conflict. Paris, which maintains interests in specific regional files, entered a deep dispute with Ankara following Turkish expansion in Libya and the competition over oil influence. French President Macron attempted to stir Christian sentiment against Turkey through the "Hagia Sophia" file. Were it not for the wisdom of the Vatican—which foresaw such a crisis—the world might have slipped into a new religious conflict. Pope Francis’s 2014 visit to Hagia Sophia was an early attempt to defuse this tension. More recently, the Pope’s visit in November 2025 to the Blue Mosque, while avoiding Hagia Sophia, served the same context: managing these variables to prevent a total crisis.

Turkey has also realized that following the Arab collapse, the United States no longer views it as an essential protector of Israel or a stabilizer of the regional status quo—especially since Turkey failed in its primary role of preventing the Russians from reaching the "warm waters" of the Mediterranean coast.

The New Map: From Aleppo to Tripoli

While Turkey did not previously mind a Syrian government controlling Tripoli or managing the sectarian rhythm in Syria, it now realizes that any new government in Syria—even one it helped establish—might not lean toward an alliance with Ankara. Instead, such a government might seek an alliance with the United States, even reaching a peace agreement with Israel.

This potential peace would involve territorial concessions in the Golan and Suwayda, and perhaps the drawing of new borders to resettle "Israeli Bedouins" along the Syrian-Jordanian border. This move would be a response to the "demographic hysteria" inside Israel, where it is expected that the Arab population will constitute more than a third of the inhabitants within two decades, threatening the Jewish identity of the state.

In light of this scene, Turkey’s only remaining option is to move directly to annex or secure major spheres of influence starting from Aleppo, expanding to include Latakia and Tartus, and reaching as far as Tripoli, Lebanon—in what is known as the "Green Zone"—to ensure its geopolitical security.

Conclusion

Turkey will throw its full weight into preventing any Syrian government from pursuing a separate peace with Israel before Ankara secures its own geographical and political share in Syria and Lebanon. My previous articles regarding the conflict with the global order explain these reasons in detail, but today the picture is complete: there will be no peace in the region before the "Ottoman" hammers his stakes into the soil of Tripoli, Lebanon.

Share

Comments

Add your comment