Ambassador Dr. Hicham Hamdan

Lebanon’s political leadership must rise to the level of the profound challenges facing the region and shed the cloak of outdated, conventional domestic politics. The political authority must recognize that it bears full responsibility for Lebanon’s future within what is now referred to as the “New Middle East.” Internal interest-based maneuvering has become trivial in the face of the sweeping transformations currently reshaping the region. Such maneuvering no longer holds any real place or influence over the decisive political trajectory of the Middle East’s future.

There is an urgent and pressing need for those in executive authority to step out from beneath the shadow of political parties—particularly the Amal Movement and Hezbollah—and to free themselves from the politics of sectarian fear, especially fear surrounding the Shiite community. The continued brandishing of the “civil war” scarecrow, under the pretext of preventing internal conflict, has become both hollow and dangerous.

We expect the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister to understand that the era of procedural maneuvering has ended. The phase of wasted time is over, and the legacy of Hamas in Gaza has been definitively dismantled. Lebanon’s political leadership must recognize that the period of riding the waves of Middle Eastern political moods has come to an end. The time has now arrived to align with the global leader shaping the current international order: President Donald Trump.

Lebanon’s authorities face a clear choice: either enter into cooperation and alignment with President Trump, or await the moment when he decides to impose a decisive resolution—by force if necessary—removing all human obstacles standing in the way of his vision for Lebanon. President Trump will not lack justification for any measure he chooses to take. The events of October 17 remain vivid in collective memory.

It is time for President Aoun to recognize that Speaker Nabih Berri is not a “Superman” who can shield him from the fires consuming the region. The only true “Superman” in today’s Arab political arena—whom both President Aoun and Speaker Berri should rely upon—is Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Speaker Berri appears to have grasped this reality, yet he seeks to keep others bound to him throughout this ongoing transition. It would be unfortunate if the Presidency failed to lead this transformation, leaving it instead to Speaker Berri and those aligned with him. For our part, however, the identity of the leader matters less than the recognition that the era of internal political gamesmanship has definitively ended.

The only policy that truly matters today is President Trump’s regional policy. Lebanon now stands at a historic juncture that will shape its future for decades to come. This moment must be approached with the full sense of responsibility imposed by the Constitution upon those in power.

For years, I have called for a return to the Armistice Agreement. At the time, the authorities ignored our appeals. Their inaction was justified by the dominance of the so-called “resistance” faction over the political system. Today, the authorities themselves raise the slogan of returning to the Armistice—after it was first raised by the leader of that same faction, Speaker Berri. Yet the authorities continue to speak of “mechanisms” aligned with Speaker Berri’s approach. No. That opportunity has already been lost—just as the opportunity for neutrality was lost before it.

I now expect that the authorities and their advisers have listened carefully to President Trump’s recent statements—clear, direct, and unprecedented. Since President Monroe, the United States has not seen a president who so explicitly defined America’s role within the Western Hemisphere and beyond. In the nineteenth century, Monroe declared to colonial Europe: America is ours, and what lies beyond it is yours. President Trump now says to Europe and others: America is ours, and what lies beyond it is both yours and ours. Lebanon’s leaders must grasp the full meaning of this position.

President Trump has spoken plainly: there will be no return to the Armistice Agreement. What is required is a new security arrangement. Anyone who understands American Middle East policy—particularly in its current phase—knows that President Trump is preparing for a decisive new stage. There is no turning back. The caravan is moving forward, toward peace.

While President Trump may not currently be pushing for a comprehensive peace agreement between Lebanon and Israel, he will undoubtedly do so in a later phase. Lebanon is therefore confronted with only two possible paths: either it moves voluntarily toward direct and substantive negotiations with Israel, under U.S. sponsorship, to achieve peace between the two countries; or it will be compelled—under pressure and coercion—into security arrangements resembling the notorious May 17 Agreement.

A voluntary path to peace can be pursued on the basis of equality between Lebanese and Israeli interests, backed by American guarantees. This approach would safeguard Lebanon’s interests along its internationally recognized southern borders, established in 1923, and would rest upon a U.S. commitment to assist in completing the demarcation of the Lebanese–Syrian border, thereby removing existing disputes and preventing future ones. Security arrangements could similarly be grounded in American guarantees for both parties. By contrast, the second option would undoubtedly be dominated by Israeli interests.

Lebanon has repeatedly reaffirmed its commitment to the Arab Peace Initiative proposed by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and adopted at the Arab League Summit held in Beirut in 2002. It may now be appropriate to consult closely with the Kingdom on this matter.

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