10/10/2024 - 14:45 PM

 

 

 

By Yazeed Al Rashed Al Khuzai *

The South China Sea lies at the heart of one of the most strategically significant regions in the world, where economic and trade interests intertwine with geopolitical and military dimensions. This sea covers vast maritime spaces, extending over approximately 3.5 million square kilometers, and is bordered by several important countries in Southeast Asia, such as China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei. The South China Sea derives its importance from being a major maritime passage through which about one-third of global maritime trade flows, in addition to being rich in natural resources such as oil and natural gas.

Over the past decades, the South China Sea has turned into a major arena for competition between regional and international powers. Our aim here is to analyze the different aspects of the conflict in the South China Sea by reviewing the political, economic, legal, and military dimensions of the conflict, and assessing its impact on regional and international stability. We will also explore future scenarios for the conflict and the potential avenues for peaceful and diplomatic resolution. Through this research, we strive to present this complex issue in a simple and engaging manner, making it accessible not only to experts but to a broader readership.

The Geopolitical Balance of the South China Sea

The South China Sea is a geographically vital area, linking the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It forms a major maritime route for international trade between industrialized countries in East Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Huge shipments of goods, raw materials, and energy, including oil and natural gas from the Gulf region to major industrialized countries such as China, Japan, and South Korea, pass through this sea. Additionally, it serves as a key route for industrial and commercial products from China and other Asian nations to global markets.

The conflict in the South China Sea is not just a dispute over natural resources or maritime sovereignty; it is part of the larger competition for geopolitical influence in the Asia-Pacific region. As an emerging power, China seeks to bolster its military and economic presence in the region as part of its strategy to assert its regional influence and further its ambitious "Belt and Road Initiative," aimed at strengthening trade and economic links between Asia, Europe, and Africa.

Strategic Dimensions of the U.S.-China Rivalry

The South China Sea conflict reflects the broader rivalry between China and the United States for influence in the Asia-Pacific region. China views control over the South China Sea as a central component of its strategy to achieve the "Chinese Dream" of becoming a global power. This involves increasing its military presence in the sea and constructing artificial islands, which bolster its control over disputed areas and secure its ability to manage key maritime routes.

On the other hand, the United States regards freedom of navigation in the South China Sea as a fundamental principle of the global order based on international rules. For this reason, the U.S. Navy conducts regular patrols in the region, including sending warships close to islands controlled by China, to emphasize that these waterways must remain open to all. These operations also aim to counter China’s expansion in the region and prevent it from fully asserting control over the sea.

Economic Importance of the Region

Beyond the political and geopolitical dimensions, the South China Sea is a vital economic zone, containing vast reserves of oil and natural gas estimated to be worth billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of natural gas. China and neighboring countries are keen to exploit these resources to fuel their growing economies, making control over disputed maritime areas of great economic significance.

Importance of the South China Sea as an International Shipping Route

The South China Sea serves as a crucial transit point for oil shipments from the Middle East to Asia. Estimates suggest that nearly half of the world’s maritime oil shipments passing through the Strait of Malacca continue through the South China Sea en route to Asian markets. This makes the area a strategic chokepoint for global trade, with major industrial nations such as China, Japan, and South Korea relying heavily on the South China Sea as a primary conduit for their energy supplies.

The Conflict Spreads Globaly

Given the South China Sea’s status as one of the busiest maritime corridors in the world, any escalation or disruption in the region would have a direct impact on global supply chains. The effects of conflict in this region could include the following critical risks:

First, In the event of military confrontations or ongoing conflict in the South China Sea, maritime insurance costs are likely to increase, as insurers would consider the area to be high-risk amid heightened tensions. This rise in costs would affect global prices for goods and raw materials, potentially slowing economic growth in countries dependent on these shipping lanes.

Second, in the case of significant military escalation or rising tensions, neighboring countries and the international community might be forced to seek alternative shipping routes. However, these alternatives would likely be less efficient and more expensive. Major industrialized nations like Japan, South Korea, and China would be severely affected if shipping in the South China Sea were disrupted, potentially delaying industrial production and increasing manufacturing costs.

Third, as the South China Sea is a key transit point for oil and natural gas shipments from the Gulf to Asia, any disruption in this corridor would lead to energy shortages, driving up global oil and gas prices. This would have a ripple effect on energy-dependent economies, causing living costs to rise and inflation to increase.

Natural Resources in the South China Sea

The South China Sea is not only a strategic maritime corridor but also a region rich in natural resources, which complicates the conflict. It is estimated that beneath the seabed lie vast reserves of oil and natural gas, alongside a large and diverse fish stock. The South China Sea is believed to contain about 11 billion barrels of recoverable oil and more than 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. These reserves have not yet been fully exploited, but the countries bordering the sea aspire to harness them to meet their growing energy demands. For China, in particular, the South China Sea offers an opportunity to reduce its reliance on foreign energy sources.

In addition to oil and gas, the South China Sea is one of the richest fishing grounds globally. Many local communities in the countries bordering the sea rely on fishing as a primary source of income. It is estimated that around 10% of the world's fish catch comes from the South China Sea. Disputes over fishing areas often lead to clashes between fishermen from conflicting countries, further heightening tensions in the region. Furthermore, the South China Sea is believed to contain important mineral resources, such as methane hydrates, which could become a significant energy source in the future. Exploiting these resources requires substantial investments and advanced technology, but control over these resources is one of the primary reasons behind the ongoing conflict.

Historical Context of the Conflict

The roots of the South China Sea conflict trace back to China's historical claims over most parts of the sea. China bases its claims on ancient maps that depict the so-called "Nine-Dash Line", a line encircling much of the sea, indicating the areas over which China claims sovereignty. Although these historical claims date back to periods prior to World War II, they have become central to the modern conflict. The Nine-Dash Line first appeared on old Chinese maps from the 1930s and overlaps with the territorial claims of other nations such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei. China argues that these areas have been part of its sovereignty for centuries, and that they have been used for fishing and navigation.

In addition to China, several other countries also claim islands and maritime areas in the South China Sea, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan. The disputes among these countries have evolved over the decades due to overlapping claims of sovereignty and resource control.

Vietnam claims the Paracel and Spratly Islands, considering them part of its historical territory. The conflict between China and Vietnam dates back to the 1970s when the two countries engaged in military confrontations over these islands, and tensions persist to this day.

As for the Philippines, it filed a lawsuit against China in the International Court of Arbitration over territorial claims in the South China Sea. In 2016, the court ruled in favor of the Philippines, declaring China's claims illegal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). However, China refused to recognize the ruling and continued building artificial islands.

Malaysia and Brunei also have claims in the South China Sea but have taken a more diplomatic and restrained approach compared to Vietnam and the Philippines. Malaysia and Brunei seek to exploit natural resources in the areas they claim without directly confronting China.

Diplomatic Efforts and International Agreements

Alongside legal attempts, there have been diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, most notably through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which aims to foster dialogue between the disputing countries. However, these efforts have yet to lead to a final settlement of the conflict.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) is one of the most important legal frameworks governing maritime disputes worldwide, including the South China Sea conflict. Signed in 1982, UNCLOS regulates the use of the seas and oceans and promotes international peace and security. It also defines the boundaries of territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). The EEZ agreements grant coastal states the right to exploit marine resources in areas extending up to 200 nautical miles from their shores, provided these zones are within the geographic limits of these states. Countries claiming islands and areas in the South China Sea rely heavily on these provisions to assert their rights to exploit marine resources in disputed areas.

China has signed UNCLOS but disputes some of its provisions when it comes to the South China Sea. China argues that it has "historical rights" to most of the sea, based on the Nine-Dash Line, which we previously mentioned. China considers these rights to be superior to the provisions of UNCLOS, asserting that vast portions of the South China Sea have been under its sovereignty for centuries.

Military Developments in the South China Sea

One of the most significant military actions undertaken by China in the South China Sea has been the construction of artificial islands in disputed areas. This process began in the mid-2010s when China expanded coral reefs and transformed them into large islands containing military and civilian facilities. Through these artificial islands, China seeks to strengthen its claims to sovereignty over most of the South China Sea and establish military infrastructure that enables it to control key maritime routes. These islands house military airports, ports, and communication centers, providing China with the capability to manage naval and air activities in the region.

The construction of artificial islands has raised concerns among many countries, particularly the United States, which views these Chinese moves as a threat to freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. The United States and its regional allies see the island-building as enhancing China's military capabilities and increasing the risk of future military escalation.

The United States plays a key role in the South China Sea conflict by maintaining a strong military presence in the region and conducting "Freedom of Navigation" operations aimed at countering China’s expansion in the sea. The U.S. Navy regularly conducts patrols in the South China Sea, where its warships sail close to islands controlled by China. These operations are intended to affirm that the South China Sea is an international waterway and that no single country has the right to exert complete control over it. Generally speaking, the United States relies on bolstering its military alliances with neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, seeing their support as crucial to balancing China’s influence in the region and ensuring the continuation of the rules-based international order.

Regional Alliances

In addition to U.S. involvement, regional military alliances form part of the military dynamics in the South China Sea, aiming to balance China's growing influence. These alliances can be summarized as follows:

1. The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad): This informal alliance brings together the United States, Japan, India, and Australia. Its purpose is to enhance military and security cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region to counter China’s expanding influence. While the Quad does not directly address the South China Sea conflict, it reflects growing concerns over China’s expansion in the region.
2. The Japan-South Korea Alliance: Both countries play significant roles in maintaining the military balance in the South China Sea. They rely heavily on this maritime corridor to transport their oil and gas imports and see strengthening their naval capabilities as essential to counter potential threats to freedom of navigation.

It is worth noting that the United Nations has not played a direct role in resolving the conflict, and UNCLOS remains the primary legal reference for countries involved in the South China Sea dispute. However, the UN continues to face challenges in enforcing China’s compliance with the International Court of Arbitration's rulings.

Economic Impact of the Conflict

Global Trade: As the South China Sea is one of the busiest maritime routes globally, any threat to navigation would lead to increased shipping costs, as vessels would need to reroute or resort to longer alternative pathways. This increase in shipping costs would especially affect the prices of imported and exported goods in global markets.

Supply Chain Disruption: Many global companies rely on supply chains passing through the South China Sea. China, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asian countries are major industrial hubs producing various goods, including electronics, automobiles, and clothing. Any disruption to shipping could delay product deliveries to global markets, leading to supply shortages and price hikes.

E-Commerce and Industrial Goods: With the expansion of e-commerce and the quick delivery of goods to consumers, any disruption in the South China Sea could particularly affect the global e-commerce industry. For instance, companies like Amazon and Alibaba rely on fast and efficient global supply chains to deliver products on time. Any shipping disruption would directly impact their profits and their ability to meet customer demands.

Foreign Investment Decline: As tensions rise, many global companies may view investing in disputing countries as a significant risk. They could delay expansion plans or withdraw investments from the region if the situation continues to deteriorate, negatively impacting economic growth in those countries.

Decreased Economic Cooperation: The conflict in the South China Sea could worsen diplomatic relations between disputing nations, hindering efforts for economic cooperation. The conflict could also disrupt free trade agreements or joint economic projects.

Capital Flows: Increased political risks could lead to the diversion of capital flows to more stable regions. Investors might prefer to invest in safer markets, such as Europe or the United States, at the expense of Asian markets affected by the conflict.

Global Energy Markets: With rising oil and gas prices due to any disruptions in the South China Sea, industries reliant on fuel would face significant challenges. These industries include air transportation, where the aviation sector is one of the largest consumers of fuel. Any increase in oil prices would raise the cost of operating aircraft, forcing airlines to increase ticket prices to offset rising costs. Consequently, this could reduce demand for air travel, negatively affecting the global economy and international tourism.

Three Scenarios for the Future

The future of the South China Sea conflict depends largely on the actions of the disputing parties and the influential international powers. Some potential scenarios that could affect regional stability and international relations are as follows:

1. Diplomatic Settlement: Disputing parties could reach a diplomatic settlement through international mediation and diplomacy, leading to a resolution of the conflict that safeguards the interests of all involved. This scenario depends heavily on China's willingness to abandon some of its historical claims and negotiate with neighboring countries.
2. Escalation to Armed Conflict: If diplomatic efforts fail and military escalation increases, the conflict could evolve into an armed confrontation between China and other countries, or possibly between China and the United States. This scenario would be catastrophic for both regional stability and the global economy.
3. Ongoing Conflict with Limited Escalation: The conflict could persist in its current form without significant escalation or a final resolution. In this case, tensions would continue, but without direct military confrontations. This scenario would likely result in ongoing economic and diplomatic disruptions in the region for a long period.

My Personal Perspective on the Conflict

Despite the complexity of the South China Sea conflict, I believe that economic cooperation between the disputing nations could be one of the possible solutions to de-escalate tensions. The disputing parties could reach agreements allowing them to jointly exploit marine resources without resorting to military confrontation, which would undoubtedly lead to global chaos.

In my humble opinion, the disputing nations could agree to share the natural resources in the South China Sea, such as oil, gas, and fish, by establishing cooperative framework agreements or treaties that protect the mutual interests of the disputing countries. Such cooperation could reduce tensions and contribute to strengthening economic relations between the nations. Furthermore, the disputing countries could collaborate on developing maritime infrastructure projects, such as building ports and improving maritime transport networks, which would enhance regional stability and increase economic opportunities for all involved.

In conclusion, the South China Sea conflict highlights the complexities of international relations and geopolitics in the Asia-Pacific region. The dispute is not just a battle over sovereignty and resources; it is also a test of the international community's ability to maintain regional stability and find peaceful solutions to conflicts rather than relying on the logic of force.

The final question remains: Can the rising Chinese dragon be contained, or will this dragon reshape the equation of global polarity, an equation that was established following the collapse of the former Soviet Union? What are your thoughts? I eagerly await further study and analysis!

* Political Analyst and Poet

Email: vipyazeed@gmail.com

 

 

Share

Comments

Add your comment