Trump and Harris in a dead heat with Gaza concerns looming large for Arab Americans
 

WASHINGTON, DC — According to a new poll of Arab American voters released today, the Biden Administration’s handling of the crisis in Gaza has eroded Arab American support, resulting in a now evenly divided community with each party receiving 38% support. In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are virtually tied at 42% to 41%, respectively.  

The poll, the Arab American Vote 2024, found that while Harris regained much of the support President Joe Biden lost after October 7th (see Special Poll: Domestic Implications of the Most Recent Breakout of Violence in Palestine/Israel), at 41%, she remains 18 points below Biden’s 2020 level of support with Arab American voters (59%).  

The Arab American Institute (AAI) has conducted polls of Arab Americans for 30 years. As part of AAI’s voter education and mobilization work, Yalla Vote was launched as an integrated voter engagement project in 1998 and Yalla Vote tracking poll questions have helped inform policy priorities. The poll’s findings will have major implications for the 2024 elections, especially in key states with the highest concentration of Arab American voters.  

The poll’s major findings are:  

• Trump and Harris in a virtual tie with Arab American voters (42-41%), with 12% supporting third-party candidates. Many undecideds shifted towards Harris after Biden dropped out.     

• Arab Americans identify as Republicans and Democrats at the same rate (38%). The number of Arab Americans who identified as Democrats has rebounded from the all-time low of 23% in October 2023. However, today's 38% remains below the traditional party identification that had the community consistently favoring the Democratic Party (40% Democrat/33% Republicans in 2020 and 52% Democrat/26% Republican in 2016). 

• Only 63% of Arab Americans are enthusiastic about voting overall, while 55% of 18-29-year-olds are unenthusiastic about voting. Traditionally, Arab American voter turnout has consistently been in the 80% range. But this year, with only 63% of the community saying they are enthusiastic about voting, Arab American’s lack of excitement for voting in this presidential election is likely to impact voter turnout in November. 

• Yet, Arab Americans remain a politically active constituency. 

• 35% of Republicans, 24% of Democrats, and 37% of 18-29-year-olds have contributed or plan to contribute to a campaign this election cycle.  

• 32% of Democrats and 28% of Republicans have contacted an elected official. 

• 37% of 18-29-year-olds have attended a rally or protest this election cycle. 

• 81% of Arab Americans view Gaza as important in determining their vote.  

• When asked to rank their top issues, the following were the top three for Arab American voters: jobs and the economy (39%), Gaza (26%) and gun violence (21%). For Arab American Democrats, Gaza ranked as the top issue overall. 

• There is room for both candidates to grow if they shifted on Gaza. 

• When asked if Harris were either to demand an immediate ceasefire and unimpeded humanitarian aid to Palestinians in Gaza or to withhold diplomatic support for and arms shipments to Israel until they implement a ceasefire and withdraw their forces from Gaza, Harris’ vote among Arab Americans increases to around 60%, capturing one-third of Trump voters while virtually wiping out the votes that would go to the third-party candidates.  

• If Trump were to make the same demands on, he too would benefit, with Trump’s vote increasing to 55%. This increased vote count for Trump comes from one-quarter of Harris voters and one-half of the votes going to third-party candidates. 

• The crisis in Gaza has also deeply affected the safety of Arab Americans.  

• 60% of Arab Americans are concerned about their personal safety, an increase from the 45% reported in October 2023.  

• 64% of Arab Americans are concerned about facing discrimination, an increase from the 50% reported in October 2023.  

• Overall, 63% of Arab Americans say they have personally experienced discrimination because of their ethnicity or country of origin, a 10-point increase since April 2023.  77% of Arab American 18–29-year-olds report facing discrimination. 

“In our thirty years of polling Arab American voters, we have not witnessed anything like the role that the war on Gaza is having on voter behavior,” said James Zogby, president of the Arab American Institute. “The year-long unfolding genocide in Gaza has impacted every component subgroup within the community - with only slight variations among religious communities and countries of origin, immigrant, or native born, gender and age groups. With the catastrophe now facing Lebanon and a little over one month remaining before the election, Arab Americans and, as our polls of US voters have shown, those who share their concerns (young and non-white voters) will be watching to see if their deeply felt concerns with Palestine and Lebanon will be recognized and respected with a promise for change.” 

AAI commissioned John Zogby Strategies to conduct a survey of 500 Arab American voters. The poll was conducted between 9/9/2024 to 9/20/2024. Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 500 is +/- 4.5 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.  

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The Arab American Institute is a national civil rights advocacy organization that provides strategic analysis to policymakers and community members to strengthen democracy, protect civil rights and liberties, and defend human rights. AAI organizes the 3.7 million Arab Americans across the country to ensure an informed, organized, and effective constituency is represented in all aspects of civic life. 

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